survival show debut probability formula

[cindi]

probability of debut = company resources + (contestant’s individual commercial value - company share of profit)

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COMPANY RESOURCES
benefits that the platform can receive from the company

examples:

• company produces dramas. if you give our trainee more screentime on the survival show, we can give your video platform priority when negotiating broadcast rights
  
• company has very famous artists. if you give our trainee more screentime on the survival show, we can allow xxx to appear on one of your platform’s varieties in the next quarter
  
• …

there are many many forms of transaction possible here. of course it comes down to whether the company is willing to put in effort for an idol survival show, as there are many that mainly manage film/tv actors

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ARTIST’S COMMERCIAL VALUE
mostly determined by fans/popularity

factors:

• how many people are willing to vote for them, to spend money on them(!), to buy products they endorse, to watch dramas they star in, so on and so forth
  
• are they conventionally good-looking enough? beautiful idols can attract fans with the least screentime/exposure (minimal investment yields highest returns). appearance and vibe also directly affect ability to attract sponsorships/ads; the broader the appeal the higher the approval from potential clients
  
• fashion quotient: personal style, compatibility with designer clothing etc brings you up a level in commercial desirability. also why it’s highly beneficial to attend fashion weeks, take a few sets of chic photos, contact fashion-related media outlets to publish videos and articles, leave some impressions in the fashion world, and the number of brands that come knocking on your door for sponsorships will definitely increase
  
• age. younger artists can take more intense schedules, are more usable long-term (for idols especially, youth is a commodity), and are less likely to have scandal material buried in their pasts (also why desired trainee ages are skewing younger and younger)
  
• other factors such as vocal and dance talent, EQ, positive personality traits such as hardworkingness humility optimism etc etc etc etc that attract fans

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COMPANY SHARE OF PROFIT
after debut, the amount of profit each member generates is split between the platform and the original company. a lot of negotiation happens here

examples:

• company A is a small company but is willing to only take 20 or 30%, while company B is a large company but will not budge on 50-50
  
• for contestants with no company obviously resources=0 share=0, the only two in produce series history who have ever debuted are cxk and kim jaehwan w1
  
  

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  all info translated from https://b23.tv/t3RkSL

Comments

[rhodochrosite]

thank u for translating cindi!!! much to think about. this srsly did give me a tender heart feeling about cxk tho... insanely high commercial value getting him to the top of the pyramid

[cindi]

蔡徐坤值得！！！！TT______TT❤️

[prizefig]

huh interesting that you posted this now... just yesterday i was thinking about whether it's been too obvious this season who's going to make debut or if i'm just starting to see the patterns more clearly, having watched a bunch of survival shows already. i was planning to code some graphs showing the trajectories of all the top 9s/11s from previous seasons and what the correlation between ranking high early and maintaining that ranking was. if i can manage that, maybe i could mess around w/ constructing a rudimentary ml model that predicts survival show winners lmao

:O

[monopoli]

tbh a lot of this makes sense... i think the two things that stand out most to me are 1. company share (common sense but i js wd never have thought of it) and 2. age... especially since it seems like a lot of the current qcyn2 trainees are pretty old! and some/many have debuted before... so it ends up being a balance between youth and previously established fanbase...

thank u for translating most precious cindis :D what would we do without u!!!